SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 82.35%. A draw had a probability of 11.6% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 6.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.08%) and 4-0 (8.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.42%), while for a Chaves win it was 1-2 (1.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Chaves |
82.35% ( -0.05) | 11.58% ( 0.03) | 6.06% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 47.83% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.42% ( -0.06) | 29.58% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.32% ( -0.08) | 50.68% ( 0.08) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.69% ( -0.02) | 5.31% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 79.11% ( -0.06) | 20.88% ( 0.06) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.51% ( 0) | 49.49% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.7% ( 0) | 84.3% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Chaves |
| 2-0 @ 11.32% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 11.08% 4-0 @ 8.13% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 7.96% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 7.79% 1-0 @ 7.71% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 5.72% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 4.78% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 3.36% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.74% 6-0 @ 2.34% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 2.01% ( -0)6-1 @ 1.64% ( -0.01)5-2 @ 1.18% ( -0)7-0 @ 0.98% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.6% Total : 82.36% | 1-1 @ 5.42% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 2.8% ( 0)0-0 @ 2.63% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.73% Total : 11.58% | 1-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 1.85% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.31% Total : 6.06% |
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