SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 72.49%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 11.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 1-0 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.72%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 1-2 (3.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
72.49% ( 0.3) | 16.48% ( -0.1) | 11.03% ( -0.19) |
| Both teams to score 52.05% ( -0.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.74% ( -0.06) | 36.25% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.62% ( -0.07) | 58.38% ( 0.06) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.28% ( 0.05) | 8.72% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.02% ( 0.12) | 29.98% ( -0.13) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.02% ( -0.38) | 42.98% ( 0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.73% ( -0.32) | 79.27% ( 0.32) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 2-0 @ 11.15% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 9.42% ( -0.02)1-0 @ 9.14% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 9.07% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 7.66% ( -0)4-0 @ 5.53% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 4.67% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.23% ( -0.04)5-0 @ 2.7% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 2.28% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.02)6-0 @ 1.1% ( 0.02)5-2 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)6-1 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.67% Total : 72.49% | 1-1 @ 7.72% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 3.98% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 3.75% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.13% Total : 16.48% | 1-2 @ 3.26% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 3.16% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.24% Total : 11.03% |
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