SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 53.99%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 18.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.04%) and 2-1 (8.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.16%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (8.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Boca Juniors | Draw | Sarmiento |
53.99% ( 0.03) | 27.43% ( -0.1) | 18.58% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 38% ( 0.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.21% ( 0.36) | 64.79% ( -0.35) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.26% ( 0.25) | 83.74% ( -0.24) |
| Boca Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.51% ( 0.18) | 24.49% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.05% ( 0.24) | 58.95% ( -0.24) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.32% ( 0.31) | 49.68% ( -0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.56% ( 0.21) | 84.44% ( -0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Boca Juniors | Draw | Sarmiento |
| 1-0 @ 17.11% ( -0.14) 2-0 @ 12.04% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 8.42% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 5.65% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.95% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 1.99% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.39% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.38% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.05% Total : 53.98% | 0-0 @ 12.16% ( -0.16) 1-1 @ 11.97% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 2.95% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.34% Total : 27.42% | 0-1 @ 8.51% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 4.19% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 2.98% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.93% Total : 18.58% |
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