Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 39.55%. A win for Botafogo had a probability of 32.94% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.28%) and 0-2 (7.28%). The likeliest Botafogo win was 1-0 (10.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
Result | ||
Botafogo | Draw | Flamengo |
32.94% ( 1.03) | 27.51% ( 0.05) | 39.55% ( -1.09) |
Both teams to score 48.91% ( 0.13) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.3% ( 0.03) | 56.7% ( -0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.35% ( 0.03) | 77.65% ( -0.03) |
Botafogo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.92% ( 0.73) | 32.08% ( -0.73) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.45% ( 0.82) | 68.55% ( -0.83) |
Flamengo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.01% ( -0.59) | 27.98% ( 0.59) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.38% ( -0.76) | 63.62% ( 0.75) |
Score Analysis |
Botafogo | Draw | Flamengo |
1-0 @ 10.2% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 7.39% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 5.8% ( 0.22) 3-1 @ 2.8% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 2.2% ( 0.13) 3-2 @ 1.78% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.76% Total : 32.94% | 1-1 @ 12.99% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 8.98% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.71% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.83% Total : 27.5% | 0-1 @ 11.43% ( -0.2) 1-2 @ 8.28% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 7.28% ( -0.26) 1-3 @ 3.51% ( -0.11) 0-3 @ 3.09% ( -0.16) 2-3 @ 2% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.05) 0-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.07) Other @ 1.85% Total : 39.54% |
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