Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 39.55%. A win for Botafogo had a probability of 32.94% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.28%) and 0-2 (7.28%). The likeliest Botafogo win was 1-0 (10.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.

Result
Botafogo	Draw	Flamengo
32.94% ( 1.03)	27.51% ( 0.05)	39.55% ( -1.09)

Both teams to score 48.91% (

0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.3% (

0.03)

56.7% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.35% (

0.03)

77.65% (

-0.03)

Botafogo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.92% (

0.73)

32.08% (

-0.73)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.45% (

0.82)

68.55% (

-0.83)

Flamengo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.01% (

-0.59)

27.98% (

0.59)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.38% (

-0.76)

63.62% (

0.75)

Score Analysis

Botafogo 32.94%

Flamengo 39.54%

Draw 27.5%

Botafogo	Draw	Flamengo
1-0 @ 10.2% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 7.39% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 5.8% ( 0.22) 3-1 @ 2.8% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 2.2% ( 0.13) 3-2 @ 1.78% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.76% Total : 32.94%	1-1 @ 12.99% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 8.98% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.71% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.83% Total : 27.5%	0-1 @ 11.43% ( -0.2) 1-2 @ 8.28% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 7.28% ( -0.26) 1-3 @ 3.51% ( -0.11) 0-3 @ 3.09% ( -0.16) 2-3 @ 2% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.05) 0-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.07) Other @ 1.85% Total : 39.54%