While Palmerias have been the more successful side in this fixture in recent years, their away form of late has been very poor and they were beaten by this opponent at this venue less than a month ago.
Indeed, Botafogo have not been at their best lately either, but their home record is still among the best in their division and we feel they will edge Verdao to a first-leg lead in this tie.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 38.88%. A win for Palmeiras had a probability of 33.36% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.15%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Palmeiras win was 0-1 (10.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Botafogo would win this match.
-0.42) 
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