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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 43.28%. A win for Braga had a probability of 31.61% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.03%) and 0-2 (7.14%). The likeliest Braga win was 1-0 (7.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Braga | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
31.61% ( 0.36) | 25.12% ( 0.16) | 43.28% ( -0.52) |
| Both teams to score 56.08% ( -0.39) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.71% ( -0.57) | 47.29% ( 0.57) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.49% ( -0.54) | 69.51% ( 0.53) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.75% ( -0.05) | 28.25% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.04% ( -0.06) | 63.96% ( 0.06) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.16% ( -0.48) | 21.84% ( 0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.93% ( -0.74) | 55.06% ( 0.74) |
| Score Analysis |
| Braga | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 7.8% ( 0.18) 2-1 @ 7.5% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 4.93% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 3.16% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.4% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.08% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1% ( 0)Other @ 2.74% Total : 31.61% | 1-1 @ 11.86% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 6.17% ( 0.15)2-2 @ 5.71% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.11% | 0-1 @ 9.39% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 9.03% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 7.14% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 4.58% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 3.62% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 2.89% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 1.74% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 1.38% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.41% Total : 43.28% |
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