Milan have scored a league-high 65% of their goals in the first half this season, while only two teams have found the net less than Cagliari before the break.
So, expect the Rossoneri to take a lead that they will not relinquish, as they are improving at the back and their hosts are lightweight up front.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 43.06%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 31.79% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.01%) and 0-2 (7.1%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 1-0 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
-0.02) 
0.03) 
