SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 48.8%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 25.98% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (8.77%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 0-1 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro Largo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado |
48.8% ( -1) | 25.22% ( 0.29) | 25.98% ( 0.71) |
| Both teams to score 52.08% ( -0.26) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.18% ( -0.65) | 50.81% ( 0.65) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.29% ( -0.58) | 72.7% ( 0.57) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.15% ( -0.68) | 20.84% ( 0.68) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.47% ( -1.08) | 53.52% ( 1.08) |
| Deportivo Maldonado Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.79% ( 0.24) | 34.2% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.1% ( 0.26) | 70.89% ( -0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 1-0 @ 11.17% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.4% ( -0.09)2-0 @ 8.77% ( -0.14)3-1 @ 4.92% ( -0.15)3-0 @ 4.58% ( -0.17)3-2 @ 2.64% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 1.93% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 1.8% ( -0.11)4-2 @ 1.03% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.56% Total : 48.79% | 1-1 @ 11.99% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 7.13% ( 0.18)2-2 @ 5.05% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.21% | 0-1 @ 7.65% ( 0.25) 1-2 @ 6.43% ( 0.12)0-2 @ 4.1% ( 0.16)1-3 @ 2.3% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.47% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.23% Total : 25.98% |
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