SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 57.51%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 17.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.09%) and 2-1 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.46%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 0-1 (7.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Cerro Largo |
57.51% ( 0.26) | 24.88% ( 0.13) | 17.61% ( -0.38) |
| Both teams to score 42.53% ( -0.94) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.07% ( -0.9) | 57.92% ( 0.9) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.37% ( -0.72) | 78.63% ( 0.72) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.88% ( -0.26) | 20.12% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.62% ( -0.41) | 52.38% ( 0.41) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.24% ( -1.01) | 46.76% ( 1.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.69% ( -0.78) | 82.31% ( 0.78) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Cerro Largo |
| 1-0 @ 15.08% ( 0.39) 2-0 @ 12.09% ( 0.22)2-1 @ 9.19% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 6.47% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 4.91% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 2.59% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.97% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 1.87% ( -0.09)Other @ 3.33% Total : 57.5% | 1-1 @ 11.46% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 9.41% ( 0.32)2-2 @ 3.49% ( -0.13)Other @ 0.51% Total : 24.87% | 0-1 @ 7.15% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 4.36% ( -0.13)0-2 @ 2.72% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.28% Total : 17.61% |
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