SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 50.13%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 23.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.1%) and 1-2 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.43%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 1-0 (8.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Penarol |
23.16% ( 0.2) | 26.71% ( 0.5) | 50.13% ( -0.7) |
| Both teams to score 45.14% ( -1.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.46% ( -1.57) | 58.54% ( 1.57) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.89% ( -1.24) | 79.11% ( 1.24) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.99% ( -0.7) | 41.01% ( 0.7) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.43% ( -0.63) | 77.57% ( 0.63) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.52% ( -0.98) | 23.48% ( 0.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.5% ( -1.44) | 57.5% ( 1.44) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 8.58% ( 0.34) 2-1 @ 5.54% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 3.83% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 1.65% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.19% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 1.14% ( 0)Other @ 1.23% Total : 23.16% | 1-1 @ 12.43% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 9.63% ( 0.56)2-2 @ 4.02% ( -0.15)Other @ 0.63% Total : 26.7% | 0-1 @ 13.95% ( 0.42) 0-2 @ 10.1% ( 0.01)1-2 @ 9.01% ( -0.16)0-3 @ 4.88% ( -0.14)1-3 @ 4.35% ( -0.21)2-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.13)0-4 @ 1.77% ( -0.1)1-4 @ 1.58% ( -0.12)Other @ 2.54% Total : 50.12% |
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