Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 54.03%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 20.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.96%) and 2-1 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.92%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 0-1 (7.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.