SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 38.46%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 33.78% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.1%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 0-1 (10.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro Largo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Plaza Colonia |
38.46% ( -0.12) | 27.76% ( 0.15) | 33.78% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 48.34% ( -0.45) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.5% ( -0.56) | 57.5% ( 0.56) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.71% ( -0.45) | 78.29% ( 0.45) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.01% ( -0.34) | 28.99% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.11% ( -0.42) | 64.89% ( 0.42) |
| Plaza Colonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.08% ( -0.3) | 31.92% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.63% ( -0.35) | 68.37% ( 0.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Plaza Colonia |
| 1-0 @ 11.45% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 8.1% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 7.09% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 3.34% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 2.93% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.91% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.04% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 0.91% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.69% Total : 38.45% | 1-1 @ 13.08% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 9.26% ( 0.2)2-2 @ 4.63% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.75% | 0-1 @ 10.56% ( 0.13) 1-2 @ 7.47% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 6.03% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 2.84% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.81% Total : 33.77% |
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