SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 45.87%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 26.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.18%) and 2-1 (8.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.89%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 0-1 (9.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Cerro Largo |
45.87% ( -0.16) | 27.84% ( 0.02) | 26.29% ( 0.14) |
| Both teams to score 44.85% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.69% ( 0.01) | 60.31% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.53% ( 0) | 80.47% ( -0.01) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.7% ( -0.08) | 26.3% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.57% ( -0.11) | 61.43% ( 0.1) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.86% ( 0.13) | 39.14% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.14% ( 0.12) | 75.86% ( -0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Cerro Largo |
| 1-0 @ 13.74% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 9.18% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 8.61% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 4.09% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 3.83% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.8% 4-0 @ 1.37% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.28% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.97% Total : 45.87% | 1-1 @ 12.89% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 10.29% 2-2 @ 4.04% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.61% Total : 27.83% | 0-1 @ 9.66% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 6.05% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 4.53% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.42% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.48% Total : 26.29% |
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