Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 36.92%. A win for Corinthians had a probability of 36.13% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.08%) and 0-2 (6.49%). The likeliest Corinthians win was 1-0 (10.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood.
0.03) 
-0.02) 
