SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 40.19%. A draw had a probability of 30.8% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 29.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.3%) and 1-2 (7.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.8%), while for a Danubio win it was 1-0 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 15.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Penarol in this match.
| Result | ||
| Danubio | Draw | Penarol |
29.02% ( -0.04) | 30.79% ( 0.04) | 40.19% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 39.08% ( -0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 31.79% ( -0.12) | 68.21% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 13.93% ( -0.08) | 86.07% ( 0.08) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.67% ( -0.1) | 41.33% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.15% ( -0.09) | 77.85% ( 0.09) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.6% ( -0.07) | 33.41% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.97% ( -0.08) | 70.03% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Danubio | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 12.19% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 5.91% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 5.39% ( -0)3-1 @ 1.74% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.59% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 0.95% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.24% Total : 29.01% | 0-0 @ 13.8% ( 0.06) 1-1 @ 13.37% 2-2 @ 3.24% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.37% Total : 30.78% | 0-1 @ 15.13% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 8.3% ( 0.01)1-2 @ 7.33% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.03% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.68% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.52% Total : 40.18% |
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