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Copa Libertadores | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Sep 19, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho
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Flamengo
0 - 1
Penarol


Plata (43'), Pulgar (53')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Cabrera (13')
Garcia (29'), Mendez (32'), Aguerre (90+1')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Flamengo 1-1 Vasco
Sunday, September 15 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Penarol 4-0 Rampla
Saturday, September 14 at 11.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

We said: Flamengo 1-0 Penarol

Flamengo have not been at their best in this tournament so far, but they always seem to come through at home, so we project a narrow triumph in the opening leg. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 71.24%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 10.57%.

The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.45%) and 3-0 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.62%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (3.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.

Result
FlamengoDrawPenarol
71.24% (-1.756 -1.76) 18.19% (0.964 0.96) 10.57% (0.7901 0.79)
Both teams to score 44.2% (-0.228 -0.23)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.33% (-1.965 -1.97)45.66% (1.962 1.96)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.01% (-1.897 -1.9)67.99% (1.893 1.89)
Flamengo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.49% (-1.001 -1)11.51% (0.998 1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.61% (-2.205 -2.21)36.39% (2.202 2.2)
Penarol Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
49.95% (0.302 0.3)50.05% (-0.306 -0.31)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.3% (0.206 0.21)84.69% (-0.20999999999999 -0.21)
Score Analysis
    Flamengo 71.23%
    Penarol 10.57%
    Draw 18.19%
FlamengoDrawPenarol
2-0 @ 13.46% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
1-0 @ 12.45% (0.53 0.53)
3-0 @ 9.7% (-0.378 -0.38)
2-1 @ 9.32% (0.104 0.1)
3-1 @ 6.72% (-0.203 -0.2)
4-0 @ 5.24% (-0.436 -0.44)
4-1 @ 3.63% (-0.267 -0.27)
3-2 @ 2.32% (-0.05 -0.05)
5-0 @ 2.27% (-0.291 -0.29)
5-1 @ 1.57% (-0.186 -0.19)
4-2 @ 1.26% (-0.081 -0.08)
Other @ 3.29%
Total : 71.23%
1-1 @ 8.62% (0.44 0.44)
0-0 @ 5.76% (0.468 0.47)
2-2 @ 3.23% (0.064 0.06)
Other @ 0.59%
Total : 18.19%
0-1 @ 3.99% (0.356 0.36)
1-2 @ 2.98% (0.177 0.18)
0-2 @ 1.38% (0.134 0.13)
Other @ 2.22%
Total : 10.57%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Flamengo 1-1 Vasco
Sunday, September 15 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Flamengo 1-0 Bahia
Friday, September 13 at 1.45am in Copa do Brasil
Last Game: Corinthians 2-1 Flamengo
Sunday, September 1 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Bahia 0-1 Flamengo
Thursday, August 29 at 1.30am in Copa do Brasil
Last Game: Flamengo 2-1 Bragantino
Monday, August 26 at 12am in Brasileiro
Last Game: Bolivar 1-0 Flamengo
Friday, August 23 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Penarol 4-0 Rampla
Saturday, September 14 at 11.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Miramar Misiones 1-2 Penarol
Saturday, September 7 at 10pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: The Strongest 1-0 Penarol
Wednesday, August 21 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Penarol 0-0 Cerro Largo
Saturday, August 17 at 9pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Penarol 4-0 The Strongest
Wednesday, August 14 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nacional 1-1 Penarol (0-0 pen.)
Sunday, August 4 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division


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