SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 46.06%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 25.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.56%) and 1-2 (8.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.96%), while for a Danubio win it was 1-0 (10.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Danubio | Draw | Penarol |
25.25% ( -0.44) | 28.69% ( 0.05) | 46.06% ( 0.39) |
| Both teams to score 41.96% ( -0.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.42% ( -0.38) | 63.58% ( 0.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.12% ( -0.27) | 82.88% ( 0.27) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.07% ( -0.62) | 41.93% ( 0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.63% ( -0.54) | 78.37% ( 0.54) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.26% ( 0.02) | 27.74% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.68% ( 0.03) | 63.32% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Danubio | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 10.11% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 5.63% ( -0.11)2-0 @ 4.39% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 1.63% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 1.27% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 1.05% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.16% Total : 25.25% | 1-1 @ 12.96% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 11.63% ( 0.17)2-2 @ 3.61% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.48% Total : 28.68% | 0-1 @ 14.91% ( 0.22) 0-2 @ 9.56% ( 0.15)1-2 @ 8.31% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 4.09% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 3.55% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 1.31% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.14% Other @ 1.64% Total : 46.06% |
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