Derby have been impressive on home soil so far this season, but the Rams' lack of attacking firepower makes it hard to envisage them blowing Bristol City away this weekend.
The Robins have looked very competitive in each of their contests to date, and we believe that the visitors have enough quality to force a share of the spoils at Pride Park.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 39.63%. A win for Bristol City had a probability of 32.38% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.17%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Bristol City win was 0-1 (10.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
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