SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 84.4%. A draw had a probability of 11% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 4.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.95%) and 1-0 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.21%), while for a Bolivia win it was 0-1 (1.83%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ecuador would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ecuador | Draw | Bolivia |
84.4% ( 0.13) | 10.98% ( -0.02) | 4.62% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 39.5% ( -0.84) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.86% ( -0.55) | 34.14% ( 0.55) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.98% ( -0.62) | 56.02% ( 0.62) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.2% ( -0.08) | 5.8% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 77.69% ( -0.23) | 22.3% ( 0.23) |
| Bolivia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 41.93% ( -0.85) | 58.06% ( 0.85) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 10.37% ( -0.47) | 89.63% ( 0.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ecuador | Draw | Bolivia |
| 2-0 @ 13.64% ( 0.25) 3-0 @ 12.95% ( 0.18)1-0 @ 9.59% ( 0.22)4-0 @ 9.23% ( 0.08)2-1 @ 7.42% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 7.04% ( -0.09)5-0 @ 5.25% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 5.02% ( -0.09)5-1 @ 2.86% ( -0.07)6-0 @ 2.49% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.92% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 1.36% ( -0.06)6-1 @ 1.36% ( -0.04)7-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.25% Total : 84.39% | 1-1 @ 5.21% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 3.37% ( 0.1)2-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.38% Total : 10.98% | 0-1 @ 1.83% ( 0) 1-2 @ 1.42% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.37% Total : 4.62% |
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