SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 52.55%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 23.87% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 2-0 (8.84%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 0-1 (6.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Cincinnati | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
52.55% ( 0.85) | 23.57% ( -0.16) | 23.87% ( -0.69) |
| Both teams to score 55.17% ( -0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.28% ( 0.05) | 45.72% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.96% ( 0.05) | 68.04% ( -0.04) |
| FC Cincinnati Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.63% ( 0.34) | 17.37% ( -0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.22% ( 0.58) | 47.78% ( -0.58) |
| Philadelphia Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.77% ( -0.55) | 33.23% ( 0.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.16% ( -0.62) | 69.84% ( 0.62) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Cincinnati | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
| 1-0 @ 10.1% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 9.74% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 8.84% ( 0.17)3-1 @ 5.68% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 5.16% ( 0.16)3-2 @ 3.13% 4-1 @ 2.49% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 2.26% ( 0.09)4-2 @ 1.37% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.78% Total : 52.55% | 1-1 @ 11.13% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 5.77% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.37% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.15% Total : 23.57% | 0-1 @ 6.36% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 6.13% ( -0.13)0-2 @ 3.5% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 2.25% ( -0.09)2-3 @ 1.97% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.37% Total : 23.87% |
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