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FC
Major League Soccer
Jun 20, 2024 at 12.45am UK
Dr. DY Patil Stadium
PU

Cincinnati
4 - 3
Philadelphia

Kelsy (29'), Acosta (49' pen., 90+10'), Orellano (60')
Keller (6')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Baribo (43', 90+1'), Bueno (55')
Wagner (12'), Elliott (12'), McGlynn (81')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Earthquakes 2-4 Cincinnati
Sunday, June 16 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Philadelphia 1-2 Inter Miami
Sunday, June 16 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

We said: FC Cincinnati 3-1 Philadelphia Union

Having only lost narrowly to Inter Miami, Philadelphia will feel that can trouble their hosts on Wednesday night. However, we can only back a convincing home victory, one that will keep the pressure on the leaders. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 52.55%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 23.87% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 2-0 (8.84%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 0-1 (6.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.

Result
FC CincinnatiDrawPhiladelphia Union
52.55% (0.848 0.85) 23.57% (-0.158 -0.16) 23.87% (-0.686 -0.69)
Both teams to score 55.17% (-0.234 -0.23)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.28% (0.048000000000002 0.05)45.72% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.96% (0.045999999999999 0.05)68.04% (-0.041999999999987 -0.04)
FC Cincinnati Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.63% (0.336 0.34)17.37% (-0.332 -0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.22% (0.579 0.58)47.78% (-0.576 -0.58)
Philadelphia Union Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.77% (-0.554 -0.55)33.23% (0.558 0.56)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.16% (-0.618 -0.62)69.84% (0.62 0.62)
Score Analysis
    FC Cincinnati 52.55%
    Philadelphia Union 23.87%
    Draw 23.57%
FC CincinnatiDrawPhiladelphia Union
1-0 @ 10.1% (0.09 0.09)
2-1 @ 9.74% (0.044 0.04)
2-0 @ 8.84% (0.173 0.17)
3-1 @ 5.68% (0.085999999999999 0.09)
3-0 @ 5.16% (0.155 0.16)
3-2 @ 3.13%
4-1 @ 2.49% (0.065 0.07)
4-0 @ 2.26% (0.092 0.09)
4-2 @ 1.37% (0.015 0.02)
Other @ 3.78%
Total : 52.55%
1-1 @ 11.13% (-0.069999999999999 -0.07)
0-0 @ 5.77% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.37% (-0.058 -0.06)
3-3 @ 1.15% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 23.57%
0-1 @ 6.36% (-0.11 -0.11)
1-2 @ 6.13% (-0.134 -0.13)
0-2 @ 3.5% (-0.116 -0.12)
1-3 @ 2.25% (-0.085 -0.09)
2-3 @ 1.97% (-0.052 -0.05)
0-3 @ 1.29% (-0.063 -0.06)
Other @ 2.37%
Total : 23.87%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Earthquakes 2-4 Cincinnati
Sunday, June 16 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Cincinnati 0-2 Nashville
Thursday, May 30 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Toronto 3-4 Cincinnati
Sunday, May 26 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Cincinnati 3-1 St Louis City
Sunday, May 19 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Cincinnati 1-0 Atlanta
Thursday, May 16 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Columbus Crew 1-2 Cincinnati
Sunday, May 12 at 12.45am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Philadelphia 1-2 Inter Miami
Sunday, June 16 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Philadelphia 2-2 Montreal
Sunday, June 2 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Philadelphia 0-0 Toronto
Thursday, May 30 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Charlotte FC 0-0 Philadelphia
Sunday, May 26 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: New England 0-3 Philadelphia
Sunday, May 19 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Philadelphia 1-2 NY City
Thursday, May 16 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer


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