SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 44.45%. A win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 32.29% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.2%) and 0-2 (6.24%). The likeliest FC Utrecht win was 2-1 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.42%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| FC Utrecht | Draw | Ajax |
32.29% ( 1.48) | 23.27% ( 0.65) | 44.45% ( -2.13) |
| Both teams to score 62.96% ( -1.66) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.59% ( -2.5) | 38.41% ( 2.49) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.3% ( -2.7) | 60.7% ( 2.69) |
| FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.49% ( -0.35) | 23.51% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.45% ( -0.51) | 57.55% ( 0.5) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.31% ( -1.79) | 17.69% ( 1.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.67% ( -3.19) | 48.33% ( 3.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Utrecht | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 7.55% ( 0.31) 1-0 @ 6.02% ( 0.63)2-0 @ 4.36% ( 0.42)3-1 @ 3.64% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 3.16% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 2.1% ( 0.18)4-1 @ 1.32% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.14% ( -0.05)Other @ 3% Total : 32.29% | 1-1 @ 10.42% ( 0.51) 2-2 @ 6.54% ( -0.12)0-0 @ 4.16% ( 0.48)3-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.17)Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.26% | 1-2 @ 9.03% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 7.2% ( 0.43)0-2 @ 6.24% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 5.22% ( -0.37)2-3 @ 3.78% ( -0.31)0-3 @ 3.6% ( -0.21)1-4 @ 2.26% ( -0.31)2-4 @ 1.64% ( -0.24)0-4 @ 1.56% ( -0.19)Other @ 3.92% Total : 44.45% |
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