SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 60.2%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 18.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.36%) and 0-1 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.68%), while for a Freiburg win it was 2-1 (5.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Freiburg | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
18.93% ( -1.38) | 20.87% ( -0.6) | 60.2% ( 1.98) |
| Both teams to score 56.99% ( -0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.16% ( 0.69) | 39.84% ( -0.69) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.8% ( 0.71) | 62.19% ( -0.71) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.4% ( -1) | 34.6% ( 1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.68% ( -1.08) | 71.32% ( 1.08) |
| Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.14% ( 0.81) | 12.85% ( -0.81) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.77% ( 1.64) | 39.22% ( -1.64) |
| Score Analysis |
| Freiburg | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 2-1 @ 5.14% ( -0.3) 1-0 @ 4.72% ( -0.29)2-0 @ 2.51% ( -0.23)3-2 @ 1.87% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 1.82% ( -0.16)Other @ 2.88% Total : 18.93% | 1-1 @ 9.68% ( -0.28) 2-2 @ 5.27% ( -0.14)0-0 @ 4.45% ( -0.14)3-3 @ 1.28% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.19% Total : 20.87% | 1-2 @ 9.93% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 9.36% ( 0.27)0-1 @ 9.12% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 6.79% ( 0.21)0-3 @ 6.4% ( 0.37)2-3 @ 3.61% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 3.48% ( 0.21)0-4 @ 3.28% ( 0.28)2-4 @ 1.85% ( 0.06)1-5 @ 1.43% ( 0.13)0-5 @ 1.35% ( 0.15)Other @ 3.6% Total : 60.2% |
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