SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 52.77%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 24.19% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.32%) and 2-0 (8.45%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (6.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Freiburg | Draw | Mainz 05 |
52.77% ( -0.01) | 23.04% ( 0.13) | 24.19% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 57.32% ( -0.55) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.96% ( -0.66) | 43.04% ( 0.67) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.56% ( -0.66) | 65.44% ( 0.67) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.68% ( -0.24) | 16.32% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.1% ( -0.44) | 45.9% ( 0.45) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.5% ( -0.45) | 31.5% ( 0.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.11% ( -0.53) | 67.89% ( 0.53) |
| Score Analysis |
| Freiburg | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.32% ( 0.2)2-0 @ 8.45% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 5.9% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 5.11% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 3.41% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 2.67% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 2.31% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.54% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 0.97% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.34% Total : 52.77% | 1-1 @ 10.76% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 5.64% ( -0.07)0-0 @ 5.14% ( 0.15)3-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.19% Total : 23.03% | 1-2 @ 6.22% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 5.94% ( 0.1)0-2 @ 3.43% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.17% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.72% Total : 24.19% |
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