SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 46.1%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 30.44% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.83%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 1-2 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Freiburg | Draw | Augsburg |
46.1% ( 1.17) | 23.46% ( 0.02) | 30.44% ( -1.18) |
| Both teams to score 61.27% ( -0.7) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.78% ( -0.65) | 40.21% ( 0.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.41% ( -0.68) | 62.59% ( 0.68) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.26% ( 0.21) | 17.74% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.58% ( 0.36) | 48.42% ( -0.35) |
| Augsburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.49% ( -1.04) | 25.51% ( 1.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.65% ( -1.45) | 60.35% ( 1.46) |
| Score Analysis |
| Freiburg | Draw | Augsburg |
| 2-1 @ 9.24% ( 0.13) 1-0 @ 7.83% ( 0.29)2-0 @ 6.77% ( 0.29)3-1 @ 5.33% ( 0.11)3-0 @ 3.9% ( 0.19)3-2 @ 3.64% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 2.3% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 1.69% ( 0.09)4-2 @ 1.57% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.84% Total : 46.1% | 1-1 @ 10.69% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 6.32% ( -0.11)0-0 @ 4.53% ( 0.14)3-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.46% | 1-2 @ 7.3% ( -0.17) 0-1 @ 6.18% ( 0)0-2 @ 4.22% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 3.33% ( -0.18)2-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.14)0-3 @ 1.92% ( -0.12)1-4 @ 1.14% ( -0.1)2-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.48% Total : 30.44% |
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