Genoa (60%) and Bologna (43%) top the list for highest percentage of goals scored during the final 15 minutes this season, so a late winner could decide what is sure to be a close-fought contest.
Momentum is going against the injury-hit hosts and their head coach Alberto Gilardino, who will be left fearing for his seat in the Stadio Ferraris dugout after another defeat.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 38.95%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 33.95% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.3%) and 0-2 (7%). The likeliest Genoa win was 1-0 (9.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
-0.56) 
0.08) 
