Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 37.38%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 35.11% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.03%) and 0-2 (6.76%). The likeliest Gremio win was 1-0 (10.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.
-0.09) 
0.23) 
