We do not believe the Pigeons have played as poorly as their record may indicate, but they still seem to be missing that killer instinct that can put them over the top.
Even if Messi does not play, we believe the other veteran leaders on Inter Miami will be able to pick them up and forget about what happened last week.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Miami win with a probability of 50.37%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 25.44% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inter Miami win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.61%) and 2-0 (8.57%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (6.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.
0) 
-0)
