Chicago have lost seven successive away matches versus NYCFC in this competition, and though this will be their first visit to Citi Field, we believe the Pigeons' desperation will serve them well on Decision Day, though it may already be too little too late for each side in the playoff battle.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 64.99%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 14.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.09%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.82%), while for a Chicago Fire win it was 0-1 (4.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for New York City FC in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for New York City FC.
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