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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lech Poznan win with a probability of 57.25%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Jagiellonia Bialystok had a probability of 20.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lech Poznan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.54%) and 2-0 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.27%), while for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win it was 1-2 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lech Poznan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lech Poznan | Draw | Jagiellonia Bialystok |
57.25% ( 0.04) | 21.96% ( 0) | 20.78% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 56.35% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.83% ( -0.07) | 42.16% ( 0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.43% ( -0.07) | 64.56% ( 0.07) |
| Lech Poznan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.49% ( -0.01) | 14.51% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.48% ( -0.02) | 42.51% ( 0.02) |
| Jagiellonia Bialystok Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.92% ( -0.08) | 34.08% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.23% ( -0.09) | 70.76% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lech Poznan | Draw | Jagiellonia Bialystok |
| 2-1 @ 9.92% ( 0) 1-0 @ 9.54% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 9.21% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 6.38% ( -0)3-0 @ 5.93% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.44% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 3.08% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.86% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.66% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.19% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.11% ( 0)Other @ 2.94% Total : 57.25% | 1-1 @ 10.27% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.34% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.94% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.17% Total : 21.96% | 1-2 @ 5.53% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.32% ( 0)0-2 @ 2.86% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.98% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.92% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.03% ( -0)Other @ 2.13% Total : 20.78% |
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