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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brisbane Roar win with a probability of 43.17%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 33.46% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brisbane Roar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.11%) and 0-2 (6.05%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 2-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
33.46% ( 1.5) | 23.38% ( 0.17) | 43.17% ( -1.67) |
| Both teams to score 63.02% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.48% ( -0.25) | 38.52% ( 0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.18% ( -0.26) | 60.82% ( 0.26) |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.09% ( 0.73) | 22.9% ( -0.74) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.34% ( 1.07) | 56.66% ( -1.07) |
| Brisbane Roar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.74% ( -0.78) | 18.25% ( 0.78) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.7% ( -1.34) | 49.3% ( 1.33) |
| Score Analysis |
| Macarthur | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
| 2-1 @ 7.72% ( 0.23) 1-0 @ 6.16% ( 0.2)2-0 @ 4.54% ( 0.24)3-1 @ 3.8% ( 0.19)3-2 @ 3.23% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 2.23% ( 0.17)4-1 @ 1.4% ( 0.1)4-2 @ 1.19% ( 0.06)Other @ 3.19% Total : 33.46% | 1-1 @ 10.48% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 6.57% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 4.18% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.83% ( 0)Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.38% | 1-2 @ 8.91% ( -0.15) 0-1 @ 7.11% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 6.05% ( -0.24)1-3 @ 5.05% ( -0.22)2-3 @ 3.72% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 3.43% ( -0.23)1-4 @ 2.15% ( -0.15)2-4 @ 1.58% ( -0.07)0-4 @ 1.46% ( -0.14)Other @ 3.7% Total : 43.17% |
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