SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 88.59%. A draw had a probability of 7.8% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 3.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (9.82%) and 2-0 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.6%), while for a Burnley win it was 1-2 (1.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Burnley |
88.59% ( -0.81) | 7.84% ( 0.55) | 3.58% ( 0.26) |
| Both teams to score 46.53% ( -0.62) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 78.32% ( -1.75) | 21.69% ( 1.76) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 59.54% ( -2.46) | 40.46% ( 2.47) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 96.97% ( -0.35) | 3.03% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 86.38% ( -1.26) | 13.62% ( 1.27) |
| Burnley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.98% ( -0.46) | 52.02% ( 0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.99% ( -0.3) | 86.02% ( 0.31) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Burnley |
| 3-0 @ 11.23% ( 0.32) 4-0 @ 9.82% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 9.63% ( 0.6)3-1 @ 7.34% ( 0.11)5-0 @ 6.87% ( -0.29)4-1 @ 6.42% ( -0.13)2-1 @ 6.3% ( 0.31)1-0 @ 5.51% ( 0.52)5-1 @ 4.49% ( -0.26)6-0 @ 4% ( -0.32)6-1 @ 2.62% ( -0.25)3-2 @ 2.4% ( 0)4-2 @ 2.1% ( -0.07)7-0 @ 2% ( -0.24)5-2 @ 1.47% ( -0.1)7-1 @ 1.31% ( -0.17)Other @ 5.11% Total : 88.59% | 1-1 @ 3.6% ( 0.29) 2-2 @ 2.06% ( 0.07)0-0 @ 1.58% ( 0.2)Other @ 0.61% Total : 7.84% | 1-2 @ 1.18% ( 0.08) 0-1 @ 1.03% ( 0.12)Other @ 1.37% Total : 3.58% |
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