SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 58.24%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 19.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.93%) and 2-0 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.29%), while for a Burnley win it was 1-2 (5.33%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Burnley |
58.24% ( 1.89) | 21.88% ( -1.1) | 19.88% ( -0.8) |
| Both teams to score 55.16% ( 2.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.95% ( 3.71) | 43.05% ( -3.71) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.55% ( 3.57) | 65.45% ( -3.57) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.5% ( 1.9) | 14.49% ( -1.9) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.51% ( 3.55) | 42.48% ( -3.56) |
| Burnley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.51% ( 1.31) | 35.48% ( -1.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.75% ( 1.33) | 72.25% ( -1.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Burnley |
| 2-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 9.93% ( -0.97)2-0 @ 9.59% ( -0.27)3-1 @ 6.4% ( 0.46)3-0 @ 6.18% ( 0.23)3-2 @ 3.32% ( 0.34)4-1 @ 3.09% ( 0.4)4-0 @ 2.98% ( 0.3)4-2 @ 1.6% ( 0.26)5-1 @ 1.19% ( 0.22)5-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.18)Other @ 2.86% Total : 58.24% | 1-1 @ 10.29% ( -0.61) 2-2 @ 5.15% ( 0.22)0-0 @ 5.14% ( -0.89)3-3 @ 1.15% ( 0.16)Other @ 0.16% Total : 21.88% | 1-2 @ 5.33% ( -0.12) 0-1 @ 5.33% ( -0.7)0-2 @ 2.76% ( -0.26)1-3 @ 1.84% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.78% ( 0.14)0-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.89% Total : 19.88% |
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