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Australian A-League | Gameweek 14
Jan 25, 2024 at 8.45am UK
AAMI Park
AU

Melbourne City
1 - 0
Adelaide United

Antonis (5')
Antonis (69')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Tunnicliffe (35'), Sanchez (79'), Jovanovic (84')
Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Melbourne City and Adelaide United.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Central Coast 2-1 Melbourne City
Sunday, January 21 at 7am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Adelaide United 4-3 Sydney FC
Saturday, January 13 at 9am in Australian A-League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 58.57%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 22.38% and a draw had a probability of 19.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.11%) and 2-0 (6.08%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (5.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.

Result
Melbourne CityDrawAdelaide United
58.57% (0.273 0.27) 19.06% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02) 22.38% (-0.252 -0.25)
Both teams to score 69.78% (-0.283 -0.28)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
74.12% (-0.212 -0.21)25.88% (0.21 0.21)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
53.94% (-0.273 -0.27)46.07% (0.271 0.27)
Melbourne City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.99% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)9.01% (0.0029000000000003 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
69.31% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)30.7% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Adelaide United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.69% (-0.307 -0.31)23.31% (0.306 0.31)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.74% (-0.45 -0.45)57.26% (0.448 0.45)
Score Analysis
    Melbourne City 58.57%
    Adelaide United 22.38%
    Draw 19.06%
Melbourne CityDrawAdelaide United
2-1 @ 8.86% (0.037000000000001 0.04)
3-1 @ 7.11% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-0 @ 6.08% (0.08 0.08)
3-2 @ 5.18% (-0.026 -0.03)
1-0 @ 5.06% (0.066999999999999 0.07)
3-0 @ 4.88% (0.064 0.06)
4-1 @ 4.28% (0.017 0.02)
4-2 @ 3.11% (-0.016 -0.02)
4-0 @ 2.94% (0.038 0.04)
5-1 @ 2.06% (0.008 0.01)
4-3 @ 1.51% (-0.021 -0.02)
5-2 @ 1.5% (-0.0079999999999998 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.41% (0.018 0.02)
Other @ 4.59%
Total : 58.57%
1-1 @ 7.36% (0.032 0.03)
2-2 @ 6.45% (-0.031 -0.03)
3-3 @ 2.51% (-0.035 -0.04)
0-0 @ 2.1% (0.028 0.03)
Other @ 0.64%
Total : 19.06%
1-2 @ 5.36% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
2-3 @ 3.13% (-0.044 -0.04)
0-1 @ 3.06% (0.013 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.6% (-0.036 -0.04)
0-2 @ 2.23% (-0.01 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.14% (-0.026 -0.03)
0-3 @ 1.08% (-0.015 -0.02)
1-4 @ 0.95% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-4 @ 0.92% (-0.021 -0.02)
Other @ 1.92%
Total : 22.38%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Central Coast 2-1 Melbourne City
Sunday, January 21 at 7am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Melbourne City 0-1 Western Sydney
Friday, January 12 at 9.15am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Western Utd 1-2 Melbourne City
Sunday, January 7 at 6am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Melbourne City 8-1 Brisbane Roar
Thursday, December 28 at 8.45am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Melbourne City 0-0 Victory
Saturday, December 23 at 8.45am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Melbourne City 3-3 Central Coast
Sunday, December 17 at 6am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Adelaide United 4-3 Sydney FC
Saturday, January 13 at 9am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Adelaide United 1-1 Macarthur
Monday, January 8 at 8.45am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Adelaide United 2-2 Wellington
Thursday, January 4 at 8.45am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Victory 2-0 Adelaide United
Saturday, December 30 at 8.45am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Adelaide United 3-1 Newcastle Jets
Friday, December 22 at 8.45am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Western Sydney 1-0 Adelaide United
Friday, December 15 at 8.45am in Australian A-League


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