SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 70.05%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 10.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.75%) and 3-0 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.02%), while for a Cerro win it was 0-1 (4.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 14.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Cerro |
70.05% ( -0.44) | 19.61% ( 0.22) | 10.34% ( 0.22) |
| Both teams to score 39.25% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.97% ( -0.29) | 52.03% ( 0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.24% ( -0.25) | 73.76% ( 0.26) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.27% ( -0.22) | 13.73% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.01% ( -0.44) | 40.99% ( 0.45) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 45.5% ( 0.26) | 54.5% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 12.42% ( 0.16) | 87.58% ( -0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Cerro |
| 1-0 @ 14.85% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 14.75% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 9.76% ( -0.13)2-1 @ 8.95% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 5.93% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 4.85% ( -0.1)4-1 @ 2.94% ( -0.04)5-0 @ 1.93% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 1.8% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.17% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.12% Total : 70.04% | 1-1 @ 9.02% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 7.48% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 2.72% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.39% Total : 19.61% | 0-1 @ 4.54% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 2.74% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 1.38% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.69% Total : 10.34% |
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