SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 35.97%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 33.48% and a draw had a probability of 30.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.09%) and 2-1 (7.03%). The likeliest Cerro win was 0-1 (13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro Largo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Cerro |
35.97% ( 0.29) | 30.55% ( 0.12) | 33.48% ( -0.41) |
| Both teams to score 40.66% ( -0.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 33.18% ( -0.37) | 66.82% ( 0.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.86% ( -0.25) | 85.14% ( 0.25) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.64% | 35.36% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.88% ( -0) | 72.12% |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.91% ( -0.5) | 37.09% ( 0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.12% ( -0.5) | 73.88% ( 0.49) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Cerro |
| 1-0 @ 13.63% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 7.09% ( 0.09)2-1 @ 7.03% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.46% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 2.44% 3-2 @ 1.21% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.12% Total : 35.96% | 1-1 @ 13.52% 0-0 @ 13.11% ( 0.18)2-2 @ 3.49% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.43% Total : 30.54% | 0-1 @ 13% 1-2 @ 6.71% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 6.45% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.81% Total : 33.47% |
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