SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 64.2%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for La Luz had a probability of 14.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.47%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.1%), while for a La Luz win it was 0-1 (5.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | La Luz |
64.2% ( -0.02) | 21.35% ( 0.02) | 14.44% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 45.81% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.14% ( -0.04) | 49.86% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.14% ( -0.04) | 71.85% ( 0.04) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.15% ( -0.02) | 14.84% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.83% ( -0.04) | 43.16% ( 0.04) |
| La Luz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.8% ( -0.02) | 46.2% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.13% ( -0.01) | 81.87% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | La Luz |
| 1-0 @ 13.08% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 12.47% 2-1 @ 9.64% ( -0)3-0 @ 7.93% ( -0)3-1 @ 6.13% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 3.78% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.92% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.37% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.44% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.13% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.12% ( -0)Other @ 2.2% Total : 64.2% | 1-1 @ 10.1% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.86% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 3.72% ( -0)Other @ 0.67% Total : 21.35% | 0-1 @ 5.3% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 3.9% 0-2 @ 2.05% ( 0)1-3 @ 1% ( -0)2-3 @ 0.96% ( -0)Other @ 1.24% Total : 14.44% |
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