The Pigeons showed flashes of brilliance at home to Portland last weekend but have not convinced us they can find that killer instinct, which is why we believe an upstart Toronto side can go to the Bronx and come away with a point.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 63.72%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 15.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.78%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.02%), while for a Toronto win it was 0-1 (5.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
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