We want to think having nothing to lose and being under new management would change the Reds' fate this weekend, but there is just too much working against the home side in all areas of the field for us to believe they can claim even a single point out of nowhere.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orlando City win with a probability of 37.35%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 36.62% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orlando City win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.25%). The likeliest Toronto win was 1-0 (9.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Orlando City would win this match.
-0.01) 
0) 
