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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle Jets win with a probability of 53.19%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 25.07% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.37%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
53.19% ( 2.83) | 21.74% ( -0.21) | 25.07% ( -2.62) |
| Both teams to score 62.96% ( -1.87) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.94% ( -1.35) | 36.05% ( 1.35) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.84% ( -1.5) | 58.16% ( 1.5) |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.28% ( 0.43) | 13.72% ( -0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.03% ( 0.84) | 40.97% ( -0.84) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.97% ( -2.54) | 27.03% ( 2.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.61% ( -3.45) | 62.39% ( 3.45) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-1 @ 9.57% ( 0.25) 1-0 @ 7.37% ( 0.59)2-0 @ 7.32% ( 0.69)3-1 @ 6.34% ( 0.26)3-0 @ 4.85% ( 0.53)3-2 @ 4.15% ( -0.13)4-1 @ 3.15% ( 0.18)4-0 @ 2.41% ( 0.3)4-2 @ 2.06% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 1.25% ( 0.09)5-0 @ 0.96% ( 0.13)Other @ 3.79% Total : 53.19% | 1-1 @ 9.64% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 6.26% ( -0.3)0-0 @ 3.71% ( 0.25)3-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.2)Other @ 0.33% Total : 21.74% | 1-2 @ 6.3% ( -0.4) 0-1 @ 4.85% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.17% ( -0.26)1-3 @ 2.75% ( -0.4)2-3 @ 2.73% ( -0.35)0-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.23)Other @ 3.88% Total : 25.07% |
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