SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 63.47%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 13.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.65%) and 2-1 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.41%), while for a Fenix win it was 0-1 (5.95%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Fenix |
| 63.47% | 22.79% | 13.74% |
| Both teams to score 40.23% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.48% | 56.52% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.49% | 77.51% |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.62% | 17.38% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.21% | 47.78% |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.69% | 51.31% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.45% | 85.55% |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Fenix |
| 1-0 @ 15.6% 2-0 @ 13.65% 2-1 @ 9.11% 3-0 @ 7.97% 3-1 @ 5.32% 4-0 @ 3.49% 4-1 @ 2.33% 3-2 @ 1.77% 5-0 @ 1.22% Other @ 3.02% Total : 63.46% | 1-1 @ 10.41% 0-0 @ 8.92% 2-2 @ 3.04% Other @ 0.42% Total : 22.79% | 0-1 @ 5.95% 1-2 @ 3.47% 0-2 @ 1.99% Other @ 2.33% Total : 13.74% |
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