SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 50.29%. A win for Perth Glory had a probability of 26.98% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.93%) and 0-2 (7.33%). The likeliest Perth Glory win was 2-1 (6.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Perth Glory | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
26.98% ( 0.38) | 22.73% ( 0.2) | 50.29% ( -0.57) |
| Both teams to score 61.29% ( -0.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.92% ( -0.62) | 39.08% ( 0.62) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.59% ( -0.66) | 61.41% ( 0.66) |
| Perth Glory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.75% ( -0.06) | 27.25% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.32% ( -0.08) | 62.68% ( 0.07) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.24% ( -0.43) | 15.76% ( 0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.13% ( -0.79) | 44.87% ( 0.79) |
| Score Analysis |
| Perth Glory | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 2-1 @ 6.71% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 5.58% ( 0.15)2-0 @ 3.63% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 2.91% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.69% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.57% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.95% Total : 26.98% | 1-1 @ 10.31% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 6.2% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.29% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 1.65% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.27% Total : 22.73% | 1-2 @ 9.53% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.93% ( 0.12)0-2 @ 7.33% 1-3 @ 5.87% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 4.52% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 3.82% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 2.71% ( -0.09)0-4 @ 2.09% ( -0.06)2-4 @ 1.76% ( -0.06)1-5 @ 1% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.73% Total : 50.29% |
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