SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 54.01%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Racing de Montevideo had a probability of 20.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.14%) and 1-2 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.97%), while for a Racing de Montevideo win it was 1-0 (7.84%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Racing de Montevideo | Draw | Nacional |
20.14% ( -0.23) | 25.85% ( 0.02) | 54.01% ( 0.21) |
| Both teams to score 43.84% ( -0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.68% ( -0.28) | 58.32% ( 0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.06% ( -0.22) | 78.94% ( 0.22) |
| Racing de Montevideo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.98% ( -0.41) | 44.02% ( 0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.86% ( -0.34) | 80.14% ( 0.34) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.3% ( -0.03) | 21.69% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.15% ( -0.04) | 54.85% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Racing de Montevideo | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 7.84% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 4.91% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 3.22% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 1.34% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.03% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.81% Total : 20.14% | 1-1 @ 11.97% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 9.55% ( 0.1)2-2 @ 3.75% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.57% Total : 25.84% | 0-1 @ 14.59% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 11.14% ( 0.1)1-2 @ 9.15% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 5.68% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 4.66% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 2.17% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.91% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.78% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.92% Total : 54% |
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