SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 55.84%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 20.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.45%) and 1-2 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.33%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 1-0 (6.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| RKC Waalwijk | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
20.3% ( -0.05) | 23.85% ( -0.02) | 55.84% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 49.57% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.18% ( 0.02) | 50.82% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.29% ( 0.02) | 72.71% ( -0.02) |
| RKC Waalwijk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.49% ( -0.04) | 39.51% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.8% ( -0.03) | 76.2% ( 0.03) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.95% ( 0.03) | 18.04% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.05% ( 0.06) | 48.94% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| RKC Waalwijk | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 1-0 @ 6.62% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 5.26% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 3.07% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 1.63% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.4% ( -0)3-0 @ 0.95% ( -0)Other @ 1.37% Total : 20.3% | 1-1 @ 11.33% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.13% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.51% ( -0)Other @ 0.88% Total : 23.85% | 0-1 @ 12.2% 0-2 @ 10.45% ( 0.02)1-2 @ 9.71% ( 0)0-3 @ 5.97% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 5.54% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.57% 0-4 @ 2.55% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 2.37% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.1% ( 0)Other @ 3.37% Total : 55.83% |
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