Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 42.64%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 30.49% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.71%) and 2-0 (7.83%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 0-1 (9.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.
0.68) 
-0.03) 
