Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 59.95%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 16.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.35%) and 2-1 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.02%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (6.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
0.54) 
-0.09) 
