Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 55.93%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 17.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.2%) and 2-1 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.73%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (7.81%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
