Given that Palmeiras remain unbeaten in Serie A this season, we expect the visitors to avoid defeat at Morumbi, but Sao Paulo's strong home form suggests that Dorival Junior's men will get something from Sunday's showdown. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 38.13%. A win for Palmeiras had a probability of 35.01% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.25%) and 2-0 (6.72%). The likeliest Palmeiras win was 0-1 (9.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.

Result
Sao Paulo	Draw	Palmeiras
38.13% ( 1.44)	26.86% ( -0.19)	35.01% ( -1.25)

Both teams to score 51.28% (

0.54)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.13% (

0.72)

53.87% (

-0.72)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.67% (

0.6)

75.33% (

-0.6)

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.55% (

1.18)

27.45% (

-1.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.06% (

1.51)

62.94% (

-1.51)

Palmeiras Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.68% (

-0.42)

29.32% (

0.42)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.71% (

-0.51)

65.29% (

0.51)

Score Analysis

Sao Paulo 38.12%

Palmeiras 35.01%

Draw 26.86%

Sao Paulo	Draw	Palmeiras
1-0 @ 10.4% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 8.25% ( 0.22) 2-0 @ 6.72% ( 0.25) 3-1 @ 3.56% ( 0.21) 3-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.2) 3-2 @ 2.18% ( 0.1) 4-1 @ 1.15% ( 0.1) 4-0 @ 0.94% ( 0.09) Other @ 2.03% Total : 38.12%	1-1 @ 12.76% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 8.05% ( -0.23) 2-2 @ 5.06% ( 0.08) Other @ 0.99% Total : 26.86%	0-1 @ 9.87% ( -0.4) 1-2 @ 7.83% ( -0.14) 0-2 @ 6.06% ( -0.32) 1-3 @ 3.2% ( -0.09) 0-3 @ 2.48% ( -0.16) 2-3 @ 2.07% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.51% Total : 35.01%