Despite a disappointing defeat last time out, Saudi Arabia have been in imperious form since the turn of the year and remain huge favourites here. We can see the hosts cruising to an emphatic victory in the end.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saudi Arabia win with a probability of 44.36%. A win for Tajikistan had a probability of 27.84% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saudi Arabia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.7%) and 2-1 (8.57%). The likeliest Tajikistan win was 0-1 (9.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Saudi Arabia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Saudi Arabia.
-0.05) 
0.06) 
